The next shoe to fall in the financial market - credit cards and auto loans!

Well, you by now know that we are in an economic downturn (aka recession - oops, nobody wants to admit it yet, but it is most likely true).  The current extent has been caused mostly by wall street and bad mortagage loans, high oil and gas prices and naked shorting by hedge funds and similar groups.  So now, it looks like we are in for an upturn as most of the financials and related stocks like Bank of America and Wells Fargo have turned around and increased as much as 50% or more in the past few days.  But how long will this rally last?

Just like the rally of May, this is a worsening economy and more banks will fail.  The last rally took us back to a DOW average of around 13,000.  Right now we are sitting at around 11,500 or so off a 1 year low of 10,900.  The rally which will continue following a little consolidation and pullback (which will occur later this week and next) will probably take us to 12,300 to 12,500 and no more as the next barrage of financial bad news - credit card and auto loan defaults starts to grow larger and larger. 

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This fragile economy and banks being already over extended and in perilous grounds after several quarters of losses in the billions will be less likely to survive another devastating hit.  Some think it may be WAMU (Washington Mutual) or Wachovia whom will be the next billion dollar bailout by the Fed or takeover by the FDIC.  Regardless, there is a whole lot more bad news coming down the pike and it is best to be prepared for it.  The last drop took us from a dow of 13,000 down to 10,900 and all areas from financials to commodities like corn and fertilizer were even hit. 

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We are still not out of the woods of the last economic hit (which some have called the abyss).  And soon we will face at least one more and this one will be worse than the last.  Economists and politicians believe the current dowturn and housing mess will easily extend into 2009 and maybe even a little of 2008 before it is done.  Inflation is still a big concern and so are worsening foreign markets and the possibility of an extended global downturn or even recession.  Good luck and be prepared.  Remember to watch for the current rally to pullback and consolidate and then go to 12,300 to 12,500 in the DOW and then reverse and come back down when the reality of the credit card and auto loan mess becomes more a reality. 

Remember, we are definitely not out of the woods and things will get worse before they get better. 

This is not investment advice.  For proper investment advice see a licensed broker or financial advisor. 



An amazing automotive blog and resource - Autonutzandboltz

 
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