The Barnes and Noble investment principle and China

We have all seen trends that come and go.  Just look at flipping houses and real estate investing.  It was the biggest thing for the last several years, but then the mortgage meltdown occured and now its basically all dried up.  It is much harder for investors, especially beginning investors, to get the loans they will need to properly finance and then make money upon resale.  In many markets the housing prices are still dropping with no end in sight.  This makes flipping a thing of the past.  Yet, when you looked at the shelves at bookstores like Barnes & Noble, they were lined with literally hundreds of books on flipping houses for a quick profit and similar subjects.

The same is true now of China.  There is a overwhelming plethora of books on jumping on the Chinese investment train.  Yes, China, just like house flipping a few years ago, is experiencing huge growth across many sectors and stocks seem to be climbing to new heights almost daily, but the question here is can this continue?  Investing expert Warren Buffet actually sold out his stake in PetroChina a few months ago.  Warren's philosophy - "Don't lose money." 

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Maybe his move out of the wild Chinese market says something.  Maybe its not coincidence that when a plethora of books on any subject become available (like with flipping houses, Chinese stocks, etc...) that the bull or upward run will soon be over and be followed by a crash?  This is the jist of my Barnes & Nobles investment principle - that when too much information in the way of books and similar become available it is too late and the bull run will soon end.  The time to get in is in its infancy.  The big money was made in the first few years of each of these bull runs.  And as time has shown no bull run can last forever and they are always followed by a bear market and manytimes a severe crash like the current mortgage meltdown in the U.S.

The best advice one can take from the Barnes & Nobles principle is to watch for early trends.  Don't jump on the tag along train, because if it tanks you could lose big time.  Do your research and read financial news and magazines.  Take an accounting course or two at your local university or community college.  The more you know and the better educated you are the better you will do.  Good luck in 2008. 

PS - some economies other than China to look into that are not at the end of their bull run are the emerging markets in west Africa, North and South Korea, Russia, Brazil, etc...
 

 
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